2009 NFL Mock Draft

Ah, mock drafts... the offseason lifeblood of the jaded fan. The draft is a two day Heimlich Maneuver for the franchise choking on its' own talent void. It's an all-you-can-eat smorgasbord for the team starved of skill. It's the sexy lifeguard dragging your drowning squad to land, and, if you're lucky, giving it a little mouth-to-mouth. Yes, in sporting terms, the draft is the savior... the hero who gets the key to the city and maybe a street named after him. In listing terms (or, our terms), it's an analytical puzzle that requires a diagnostic approach and investigative wherewithal. Oh yes, we quite like it.

So this is our first, post-Senior Bowl, seven round mock draft. That's right, we said seven rounds. We're as thorough as you'll find, that's for damn sure. Now remember, this is pre-combine, pre-compensatory pick allocation, pre-pro day, so lots will change. But here's our initial attempt.

1. Detroit Lions:
~Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest

OK, OK, shut up and let us explain ourselves, will ya? Jeez,
where's the civility gone?

It's obvious, at least to us, that Detroit has needs virtually
everywhere... so this should be easy for them. But it's not,
and here's why...

Normally, a franchise starved for a QB would draft one at the
top of the draft. Regrettably, this year, none of the QB's are
worth the #1 overall pick. So do they reach and grab a player
at an obvious position of need? We say no. The history of the
draft is littered with teams that made this mistake, from the
49ers (Alex Smith), to the Texans (David Carr), to the Browns
(Tim Couch), etc... The Lions need to build themselves a team
first, then when you plug in a QB, even if he's a rookie, he has
a chance for success (see Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan). We think Jim
Schwarz is aware of this, so we think they'll pass.

So next, you think "well, they'll look OT. There's a lot of good ones, and they need one." Only partially correct, the worst kind of correct. First, the offensive tackles have more questions than they did at first blush. Can Andre Smith keep up with the speed rushers? Does Michael Oher love the game, and will he stay focused? Is Jason Smith tough enough, and how good is he blocking the run? And Eugene Monroe seems to be good at everything, but is he great at anything? More importantly, at least for the Lions, is the fact that, in their infinite wisdom, they signed OT Jeff Backus to a six year contract two years ago which made him the sixth highest paid offensive lineman at the time (or, the highest paid lineman to never make a Pro Bowl). Couple that with the fact that they drafted a tackle in the first round last year (Gosder Cherilus - and the pay that comes with it), can they really afford to have so much money tied up on an offensive line that's not very good? And Backus isn't the type of lineman that's typically moved inside (he's a thin, athletic tackle that doesn't translate well to a move to guard)... so can the Lions afford to go that route? We say no.

Michael Crabtree is of course a luxury on which the Lions cannot splurge, however, if he were to explode at the combine (say, run a 4.3 forty, etc...), they would be presented with their best opportunity to trade down, though we think trading down from the #1 pick is a thing of the past, no matter the player.

So really, that leaves us with Curry. He comes with is own problems... namely, his position. See, linebackers aren't taken at the top of the draft. They just aren't, for some reason... and taking him here would immediately make him one of the highest paid (if not the highest paid) linebackers in the league. But here's the thing that puts him over the top... he has the fewest question marks. He's going to be a good player, probably a great player, and maybe a star. He's the safest pick, and the Lions need to get a player they can count on for years. Curry is that guy.

Other considerations:

Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia - We think when it all shakes out, he'll be the top rated OT with the lowest amount of risk.
Andre Smith, OT, Alabama - In the end, he's either a grinding LT, or a super RT.
Michael Oher, OT, Mississippi - The paranoia surrounding Oher (mostly based on Michael Lewis' excellent book The Blind Side) drops him further than he should go, especially as we believe he'll be the best OT to come out of this class.
Jason Smith, OT, Baylor - The best pass protector of the bunch with excellent potential, but in the end, the questions surrounding his ability to run block drop him.
B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College - The Lions could certainly use him, but his inconsistency (or, the fact that he tires at the tail end of games) eventually drops him from consideration.

2. St. Louis Rams:
~Andre Smith, OT, Alabama

Sure, we think new coach Steve
Spagnuolo would love to go defense
here, but aside from Curry and Raji
(who will certainly be considered), no
one merits the spot. And we're also of
the firm belief that the Giants power-
running game will be installed, hence
the selection of Smith over the other
tackles.

Let's face it... Orlando Pace is done.
He's been a great player for many years
in St. Louis, but his career is at its' end.
Even if he struggles through one more
season (or tries to), it's time, St. Louis,
to find his replacement. And in Smith, if
we're right about the offense Spags is
going to implement (and being right is
kind of our thing), the Rams would be drafting a guy who could lead Steven Jackson to a 2,000 yard season. We're not kidding. And the speed rush would be less of a problem because the play-action pass would be the strength of the passing game, and very few defensive linemen can speed rush off of play-action, especially if the running game is gashing him and his mates. And absolute worst-case, Smith becomes one of the games best right tackles, a risk we think the Rams are willing to take.

As for Raji, outstanding Senior Bowl (practices) aside, we feel like when his film gets broken down further, his tendency to fade as games wear on will come to the fore. Most guys his size have this problem, and he's certainly no different. He's still an elite level DT, just not enough to move him above Smith here.

Other considerations:

B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College - Too inconsistent to be picked yet.
Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia - Too finesse for what the Rams want to do.
Jason Smith, OT, Baylor - See Monroe, Eugene.
Michael Oher, OT, Mississippi - Highly doubtful he will go above the other tackles.
Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech - Too much of a luxury pick, especially as they'd like to develop more of a smash mouth attitude.

3. Kansas City Chiefs:
~Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia

The Chiefs are in a tough spot here.
The players with value here don't really
fit pressing needs. Oh sure, they need
a QB, but as we've mentioned, we don't
think any of the QB's are worth this
spot, and we have a feeling Scott Pioli's
going to come to the same conclusion.
Plus, it wouldn't surprise us in the least
if Matt Cassel ends up calling Kansas
City home, what with the connection
between Pioli and the Patriots. No, we
don't see a signal caller being the pick.

So then we move to the tackles. A
definite position of need. Remember
when the Chiefs had an offensive line to which all others aspired? It wasn't actually that long ago, though it sure seems it, as those days are long gone. We say the Chiefs and Pioli are going to try and set things right. They started last year with the drafting of Brandon Albert in the first round. Now we say they draft his best mate, Eugene Monroe. That's right, they both went to Virginia, apparently they talk to each other 2-3 times per week... it just adds up to some cohesion on the line. Of course, if Monroe weren't talented enough, he certainly wouldn't be picked just for the sake of cohesion (ah, the things we'll do for cohesion...). No, he simply warrants the spot. He doesn't have the most upside of the remaining tackles, but he has the least downside, if that makes sense. Of course it makes sense... you guys are smart, right?

That being said, if Curry were still available, or if there were a defensive end worthy of this pick, they'd get the nod. Problematically, this is not the case. They're almost forced to go tackle here, and it comes with it's own downside, namely, that the Chiefs can't afford to miss with Monroe, as both tackles will be tied up with first round money.

Other considerations:

Jason Smith, OT, Baylor - This is almost a toss up, and we feel it might actually be Monroe's familiarity with Albert that wins him the spot.
Michael Oher, OT, Mississippi - Again, we feel that until the other three elite tackles are off the board, Oher has to wait.
Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech - Like Detroit and St. Louis, a luxury the Chiefs can't really afford.

4. Seattle Seahawks:
~Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech

A match made in Heaven, so to speak. Unlike the first
three teams on our list, the Seahawks are in a position
to draft a game-changer. They're one of those teams that
next year, when they rebound to go 11-5, you won't be
that shocked by it, because they're better than this spot
would have you believe. They were simply ravaged by
injuries last year, lost their confidence, and the ol'
snowball effect took hold, tumbling them down the side
of the mountain towards 4-12.

Big picture, though, it might be the best thing that's
happened to them since... well, since they made the Super
Bowl. Crabtree is just what the doctor ordered. They're
desperate for playmaking wide receivers in the Pacific
northwest, and in Crabtree, they've got one. He won't be
the fastest guy at the combine (or pro day, whenever the
hell he decides to run), but he's fast enough. And he won't
have the best hands of the receivers, but they're good
enough. What he will have is an extraordinary desire to
compete. He reminds us of Terrell Owens in this way.
When he catches a ball, he wants that end zone, and get in his way at your own peril. He becomes a goal-line seeking missile, and he frequently finds his target. The Seahawks are going to love this guy, and unless some team trades into the top three (highly unlikely), he's going to be theirs.

We suppose the argument could be made that it's time to replace Walter Jones, and it is, just not at the expense of drafting Crabtree. So it will either have to wait or come later. Oh, sure, if someone does trade above the Seahawks for Crabtree, or in the unlikely event Crabtree runs a 4.7 forty, Jason Smith or Michael Oher will probably be the pick... but we like to operate in what we call the "real world", not some fantasy land where whatever could happen does... or is that a parallel universe? Whatever, it's not going to happen, and Crabtree's going to be accessorizing with lime green.

Other considerations:

Jason Smith, OT, Baylor - Well, not really, but if those far-fetched hypotheticals we mentioned earlier somehow come true, he would probably get the nod.
Michael Oher, OT, Mississippi - He'll have to wait until Smith gets picked we reckon.
Everette Brown, DE/OLB, Florida St. - When he tests at the combine/his pro day, his numbers are going to vault him up the board, on which he's already highly placed.
B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College - A position of need, certainly, but unless Crabtree and the OT's are gone, he' ain't gettin' picked here... and since that's impossible... he ain't gettin' picked here.

5. Cleveland Browns:
~Everette Brown, DE/OLB, FSU

The Browns need defense. Bad. And they're in a relatively happy
place at OT, having drafted Joe Thomas two years ago (though
they could use a RT, you don't draft a RT at #5 overall), and
they're also reasonably set at DT/NT, having traded last year for
both Shaun Rogers and Corey Williams. They would surely love
for Curry to fall, but in our little scenario here, that doesn't
happen. So, by process of elimination, Brown is the pick. Brown
to the Browns. Ha... we love it when we're funny.

It's a wonderful consolation prize, though. One would assume, with
the appointment of the Mangenius as head coach, that the Browns
will stick to the the 3-4 defense they've been running the past
couple of years under Romeo Crennel, and Brown is the perfect
hybrid OLB/DE that the best 3-4 defenses require. Think Shawne
Merriman, Terrell Suggs, James Harrison, Joey Porter, etc... Mr.
Brown brings those kind of abilities.

It certainly wouldn't shock us to hear the name Malcolm Jenkins
come off Mr. Goodell's lips on draft day. He's an excellent cover
corner, a position of dire need for the Browns (and frankly, most
teams in the league). We think, though, that the Browns opt for
Brown, not only because of the name symmetry (more important
than you think... at least to us), but because there are some questions about Jenkins speed, and whether or not he might have to move to safety. If he's a safety instead of a corner, he's not worthy of the number five overall pick. We actually don't believe this, we believe he's a corner, but not as elite as some would have you think.

Other considerations:

Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio St. - As mentioned, he's a corner, and an excellent one, just not the number five overall pick.
Brian Orakpo, OLB/DE, Texas - Plays the same position as Brown, and many like him better. Just not us, and we think, eventually, not the Browns.
Aaron Maybin, OLB/DE, Penn St. - Oh to be a 3-4 defense picking in the top 12 or so. There's some elite level edge linebackers. Maybin will keep shooting up the draft boards as draft day approaches.

6. Cincinnati Bengals:
~Jason Smith, OT, Baylor

The Bengals, like the Lions and Chiefs, have lots of holes. And yes,
Bengals fans, we know... no one likes to be compared to a team that
just completed the first 0-16 season in NFL history. But it is what it
is, and aside from a few positions, the Bengals need to upgrade their
talent level. One spot, of course, where they're set, is at the QB
position. If only they could keep Carson Palmer healthy. Ah, but
that's where the draft comes in to play. Leave it to the draft to come
into play just when you need it to. See, the Bengals are a pass first
offense, and as such, are in desperate need of a top-level pass
protector. Enter Jason Smith, stage right, to shake the commissioner's
hand. He's far and away the best pass-blocker in the draft, and
wethinks a better run-blocker than he's being given credit for. Levi
Jones has clearly seen better days, and the Bengals simply must keep
Palmer healthy.

This pick, or more prudently this spot, could be extremely volatile.
The Bengals could have loads of cap space, and if they can entice a
guy like Jordan Gross to come to Cincinnati (no easy sell, we know),
they clearly would move away from drafting Smith. But with Smith
on the board, this spot figures to be the one that draws plenty of
trade-up attention. You have to figure that B.J. Raji, Brian Orakpo,
Smith, Michael Oher and Malcolm Jenkins are all about to be drafted,
And any team with their eye on one of those guys might have to
make a move.

If the Bengals do sign an OT in free agency and keep this pick, we
figure they'll be looking at Orakpo, Jenkins or maybe Raji (though John Thornton and Domato Peko played surprisingly well at the DT position last season). That being said, one has to assume with so much OT talent in the draft this year, the Bengals will simply decide to draft their OT, and use their cap space to go after a center or defensive back or two.

Other considerations:

Brian Orakpo, OLB/DE, Texas - Certainly would fill a need, and would probably be the pick were the Bengals to fill their OT vacancy during free agency.
Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio St. - Just not his time yet.
Aaron Maybin, OLB/DE, Penn St. - Again, we think after the testing is done, he's going to be mentioned around these spots, but we do think Orakpo will still rate higher for most teams.
B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College - A bit more of a luxury with the emergence of Thornton and Peko last year, the Bengals will look to fill other positions first.

7. Oakland Raiders:
~B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College

Predicting what Al Davis will do with a draft pick is like
speculating on the next acorn to fall, or which dog will be the
next to bark. It's an effort in impracticality. The one thing that
everyone seems to know about Davis is his love of speed. He
likes fast guys. So from that little tidbit of knowledge, we try
and deduce his entire draft strategy. Sometimes it works,
sometimes it doesn't. We notice many mock drafts have the
Raiders selecting Jeremy Maclin here, while a few even have
Percy Harvin. Stands to reason. Two of the fastest, most
explosive guys in the draft. But too early for them. They're
both smallish (frame-wise) and injury-prone. And lingering
doubts on their speed being NFL-elite will push both of them
further down the draft.

So what then? Well, who knows, really? But it's our job to
prognosticate, and prognosticate we will. The Raiders have
plenty of positions that need some shoring up, but Davis has
been known to ignore those in the past for game-breakers, or game-changers, or any number of players that float his boat for one reason or another. We're going to say that this year, that variable is hype. See, Raji is one of the most talked about players coming out of the Senior Bowl, having dominated during practice. Kevin Williams, the excellent DT from Minnesota, enjoyed a similar post-Senior Bowl bump, and after some Viking chicanery, was eventually drafted 8th overall. And he's enjoyed a wonderful career to this point. Same goes for Philip Rivers. And Davis has proven before that he can be swayed by hype, with the selection of Robert Gallery. Of course, that one didn't go so well for him, but the Williams/Rivers experiences will convince Davis to select Raji. Oh, and on top of all the Davis psychological deconstruction, it's a position the Raiders desperately need to strengthen (we think, though one can never be sure with Davis, that DT and OT are the two areas that most need addressing). So given these factors... though somewhat flimsy, we'll agree, but this is Al Davis we're talking about... we're going to give them Raji here.

Other considerations:

Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri - Sure, he could draft him here. This is Al Davis, after all.
Percy Harvin, WR, Florida - Sure, he could draft him here. This is Al Davis, after all.
Michael Oher, OT, Mississippi - After the burn job Robert Gallery put on him, we're going to guess Davis avoids the big fellas in the early part of the first round... though we must admit, it's certainly a need.
Brian Orakpo, OLB/DE, Texas - Worthy of the spot, but not a big enough need for Davis to select him over Raji or Oher.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars:
~Michael Oher, OT, Mississippi

So there are some mock drafts out there that have Oher
falling into the 20's. We're not buying it. Eventually,
everyone's going to come to their senses and realize that
physically, Oher's the best OT in the draft. And the man's
been doubted before... yet, here he is. And the Jaguars
will be ecstatic, as he's both the best player available, and
a need-filler. The best of both worlds, right? Didn't Hagar
the tequila man sing something about that? Of course he
did.

Facts are, Jacksonville doesn't belong here. Like Seattle,
they're a team with talent, only a few pieces away from a
return to prominence. Oher is going to be one of those
pieces, rest assured.

On the off chance that the big four offensive tackles have
been taken (because really, it is Al Davis drafting before them), we suppose they'll look at Malcolm Jenkins or Jeremy Maclin, both of whom the Jaguars could certainly use... or, if Raji's still around, he could get a look as well.

Other considerations:

Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio St. - It certainly seems that all teams, at all times, can use a good corner.
Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri - A position of need, to be sure, but not worth this pick.
Peria Jerry, DT, Mississippi - If Raji's gone, as he is in this scenario, the Jags would be prudent to consider Jerry, who also dominated at the Senior Bowl. Alas, his age (he's 25) will push him back a little further.

9. Green Bay Packers:
~Brian Orakpo, DE/OLB, Texas

A good year, wethinks, to be switching to a 3-4 defense, as
this draft is littered with stellar outside linebackers. Or at
least, the kind of outside linebacker they like to use in the
3-4. Everyone watched Orakpo burst onto the scene with his
dominance of Oklahoma during the Red River rivalry, and if
it weren't for an injury he suffered in the third quarter of their
game against Texas Tech, it may have been the Longhorns
squaring off against Florida instead of the Sooners. Actually,
we're quite certain it would have been. They were that close.

Texas' loss is Green Bay's gain, though, as Orakpo might
have vaulted himself further up the draft board, out of the
Packers' reach. He's the perfect fit for the 3-4, a DeMarcus
Ware type who will initially excel at getting to the QB before
eventually adapting to his linebacking duties. A coup for the
Pack.

They could feasibly decide that Aaron Maybin better suits
what they're trying to do, and he is a very similar player
to Orakpo. Basically, it will come to which one of these
guys, both of whom play the same position, do they like
better? The smart money's on Orakpo, though things can change drastically between now and draft day, and Maybin's sure to have a great combine. Malcolm Jenkins would also fill a need, but we feel like he'll be ranked behind Orakpo and Maybin, especially for a team making the switch to the 3-4. They're gonna need players that fit their system, yo.

Other considerations:

Aaron Maybin, DE/OLB, Penn St. - Very similar to Orakpo, but in the end, he can't overtake him.
Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio St. - Would work for them, but positionally not as great a need as the one occupied by Orakpo and Maybin.

10. San Francisco 49ers
~Matt Stafford, QB, Georgia

After months of mock drafts leaving them with
sometimes one but often none of the top QB's to
choose from, suddenly they're faced with a
situation where both of them are available. Heady
stuff for the QB needy Niners. Now, while we don't
think Stafford's worthy of this spot, QB's always
go higher than they should, and he is the
consensus number one. And, taking a risk at
the number 10 spot is a far cry from taking a
risk in the top 5, especially as it pertains to
contracts.

So, we think they'll quickly assess their situation
and pull the trigger. They won't be completely
taken by surprise. NFL front offices aren't stupid. They go over every scenario, no matter how unlikely, in their preparations for the draft. So they will have gone over what to do if this particular one presents itself. And here's why we think they'll go Stafford:

First, opinions on the young man are very split. Some think he's the second coming of John Elway and Brett Favre, what with the cannon arm and gunslinging recklessness. They see the physical tools and think he's the best player in the draft. Others see his poor completion percentage and his high turnover ratio and wonder whether he's got the head for the game. Still others fall somewhere in between. The further away from the number one pick we head, however, and the less the negatives outweigh the positives. It's a proven fact. If Stafford were there for the Niners in the sixth round, he'd be the obvious choice. But of course he'll never make it that far, because someone else would come to the same conclusion and draft him first.

But the 49ers need a QB. They don't have the greatest roster in the league, but they don't have the worst either, so they could feasibly afford to roll the dice here. Whether or not he turns out to be Elway or Jeff George remains to be seen... but George's horribleness didn't stop the Colts from taking Manning, just like getting burned by Alex Smith shouldn't stop the 49ers from taking a QB.

Alas, in our estimation, this one's more George than Elway, but we'll see.

Other considerations:

Aaron Maybin, DE/OLB, Penn St. - The Niners are sticking to the 3-4 defense, and Maybin's a great fit that also suits a need. If they don't roll the dice on Stafford, Maybin could easily be the pick.
Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio St. - Again, he fits a need, and it will probably be a toss-up between he and Maybin if they decide to pass on Stafford.

11. Buffalo Bills:
~Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio St.

We think, if the draft breaks this way, it's the worst case
scenario for the Bills. They'd love one of the big OT's,
and if Curry, Orakpo or Brown were to fall, we're certain
they'd fall no further. Alas, none of them remain, so
they'll be working the phones for a trade down and while
we suppose it's possible, their most likely trading
partners don't have enough ammunition to move up. So
they're stuck here, deciding between, the way we see it,
Aaron Maybin, Brian Cushing, Malcolm Jenkins, Brandon
Pettigrew, Michael Johnson and Rey Maualuga.

From what we can tell, the Bills coaches seem content
with their defensive ends, even though you'd have to
say pressuring the quarterback was one of their glaring
weaknesses. We're sure that if the best player available
(BPA) were a DE, they'd draft him, but as it is, the DE's
come with issues. Maybin is really better suited to the
3-4, as an OLB/DE than to the 4-3 as a true DE. Johnson
has all the talent and potential in the world, but where
is the production? And skipping the Senior Bowl, where
he could have made a real name for himself and justified
this spot, but he doesn't seem to be up for the challenge. And Cushing, while a linebacker by trade, is a devastating pass rusher in his own right... but does his Senior Bowl performance vault him all the way to the 11 spot when he was a borderline first round pick going into it? We think not.

Maualuga will be the sexy pick, especially amongst the fans, but the Bills already have an ILB they've been grooming in Paul Posluszny, and Maualuga isn't athletic enough to play outside. There's even murmurs that he might not be athletic enough to play on third down. That's a problem for the #11 pick. And when the rumors of his off-field chicanery start to surface, as they are, all the more reason for the Bills to pass.

So that leads us to Brandon Pettigrew. A dire need for the Bills, to be sure, and an excellent prospect (we actually think he's going to end up being one of the better TE's in the league for a long, long time... a Gates type... not blazing speed, but wonderful hands and, as a bonus, a dominant blocker). But unless he turns in a 4.4 forty, do you really draft a TE this high? Oh, and he's not gonna turn in a 4.4 forty.

Which leads us to Malcolm Jenkins. The old best player available. Cornerback isn't as strong a need as some of the other spots, but when you consider they'll probably be losing Jabari Greer this offseason and maybe Terrence McGee next year, well, the pick starts to make more sense. Plus, when the Bills draft a corner, he turns into a great player. That's just the way things go... and the way they'll go here.

Other considerations:

Aaron Maybin, DE, Penn St. - Again, were they in need of a 3-4 DE/OLB, he'd be their guy.
Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma St. - An excellent prospect, but this is just a bit too high for him.
Michael Johnson, DE, Georgia Tech - On paper, the perfect DE. On the field, not so much.
Brian Cushing, OLB, USC - Flying up the board, but this high? Not yet, at least.
Rey Maualuga, ILB, USC - Not really a position of need, and by draft day he could be a second-rounder.

12. Denver Broncos:
~Aaron Maybin, DE/OLB, Penn St.

Maybe you've heard, maybe you haven't, but the Broncos have brought
in Mike Nolan to be their defensive coordinator this year. And when you
get Nolan, you get the 3-4 defense. The Broncos, as they're currently
constituted, don't have the horses for the 3-4, so it's time to start
filling up the stable.

Now, were Everette Brown, or Brian Orakpo, or even B.J. Raji available,
they'd probably get the nod. But they aren't, so Maybin's going to be
be the pick. Oh, we suppose the argument could be made for Knowshon
Moreno or Chris "Beanie" Wells since the Broncos went through so many
running backs last year, but running backs are becoming a dime a
dozen. Just look at last year's draft... the consensus guys, Jonathan
Stewart and Rashard Mendenhall failed to exceed the output of guys
drafted later like Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, Tim Hightower and Kevin
Smith. So why spend such a high pick on one? We can think of no good
reason.

More realistically, they could also stump for LSU's DE Tyson Jackson, who
could play on the end of the line in the 3-4. And if Buffalo were to pick Maybin just prior to this pick, we think Jackson would probably come off the board. But under our little scenario here, Maybin's available, and Maybin's the guy. It's really a no-brainer.

Other considerations:

Tyson Jackson, DE/DT, LSU - A nice fit for the end of the line in the 3-4, but ultimately, less desirable than a playmaking OLB.
Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia - It wouldn't shock us to see a RB go here, but one of our eyebrows would probably rise up.
Chris "Beanie" Wells, RB, Ohio St. - See Moreno, Knowshon.
Peria Jerry, DT, Mississippi - DT is certainly a need area, but Jerry is the wrong kind of DE.

13. Washington Redskins:
~Peria Jerry, DT, Mississippi

A match made in Heaven, or at least on eHarmony, if that's
more your thing. Jerry fits a need and he's one of the best
players available to boot. Just how every team would like their
draft to go. Sure, they'd like one of the big offensive tackles,
and if they like Jerry they'd love Raji, but Jerry will be in the
group of players the Skins hope are available.

Oh, like most players, he comes with a few red flags. First, he'll
be 25 before the season even begins. That's pretty old for a
rookie, especially one you're about to drop a lot of money on.
And he's on the smallish side for a defensive tackle... he
certainly wouldn't work in the 3-4, at least as a tackle... he'd
have to be moved to end. Alas, the Redskins don't play the 3-4,
and he's consistently proven, in a conference littered with future pros, that he can hold up to the rigors of the position. Hell, who are we kidding. He doesn't just hold up, he thrives. He also has a history of injuries, though nothing major and nothing for awhile, but it has to be considered.

The argument could be made for Tyson Jackson, particularly as he could feasibly switch to defensive tackle and possibly become the same sort of player as Jerry, but we see Jerry's performance at the Senior Bowl putting him over the top here. You could also make an argument for Brian Cushing, but again, is this too high for him? We're approaching his draft range, but we can't help feeling this would be a minor reach.

Other considerations:

Tyson Jackson, DE/DT, LSU - If they draft him, he'd move inside, but why not stick with Jerry?
Brian Cushing, OLB, USC - Not his time yet.

14. New Orleans Saints:
~Brian Cushing, OLB, USC

The Saints strongest need is for a safety, so it's
feasible they could reach for Louis Delmas here, but
right now it would be a fairly major reach. Delmas
could make life easier for them by impressing enough
at the combine to make this a viable position for him.
In lieu of those developments, and if the Saints are
unable to trade down, they're left in a bit of a pickle.

Were Malcolm Jenkins to fall, they'd draft him in a
heartbeat. He's fully capable of playing both CB and
FS, and he'd be just the kind of player new defensive
coordinator Gregg Williams could use. As it is, he's
not available. Vontae Davis makes some sense, but
he's a true corner, and the Saints, while they could
certainly use a corner, have Mike McKenzie coming
back (if they bring him back... he is due a substantial amount of money), and there seems to be a lot of confidence in the abilities of Tracy Porter. Now if Davis were to grade out as a future star they'd surely take him, but we don't think he'll grade out that high. His ball skills leave a bit to be desired, though there's no denying his athleticism (on a side note... "ball skills" is by far our favorite of the draft terms, besting such greats as "fluid hips" and the always classic "tweener").

So, no safety, and they're passing on the CB, so now what? Well, like most teams, they need to get pressure on the QB, but they have some talented ends in McCray and Will Smith who are either injured or underperforming or both. Plus, DC Williams likes to attack from all kinds of different angles. Enter Brian Cushing. He's an OLB by trade (certainly a need for the Saints), and he's a devastating blitzer/pass rusher, thanks to his time as a defensive end in college. Send this guy loose and the corners won't have to cover as long, their free safety will find it easier to play centerfield, and their other linemen will find themselves freed up by the attention the opposition will have to avert towards Cushing. Is it a little too high for him? Yes. But given the Saints choices, and given the fact that Cushing plays an in-demand position, we're comfortable saying he'll go here.... at least for now.

Other considerations:

Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois - Could certainly be the choice, we just don't see it.
Rey Maualuga, ILB, USC - As draft preparations continue, it will become more and more obvious that Maualuga is strictly an ILB (maybe a two-down one at that), and the Saints already have Jonathan Vilma, who we're sure they'll re-sign (though not until after February 27th).
Tyson Jackson, DE/DT, LSU - If you consider him a DE, he's not much different than the guys they already have. If you consider him a DT, he's too big a risk, especially considering they drafted one in the first round last year.

Louis Delmas, S, Western Michigan - Would be a major reach, but would fill a major need.

15. Houston Texans:
~Michael Johnson, DE, Georgia Tech

"Oooh, aaah" goes the gallery. Stunned looks from Mike Mayock and
Mel Kiper Jr. This is the proverbial "didn't see it coming" pick that
always comes in the middle of the first round. Well, clearly, we saw
it coming. So, here's what we think the thought process behind this
one is going to be; "if we (the Texans) can get a stud pass-rusher to
pair with Mario Williams, our defense will be unstoppable. It will
make our corners better, our linebackers better, hell, even our lousy
safeties better. All with one pick. It's a risk, sure, but so was Mario.
And yeah, if an elite-level safety was available, we'd probably go
that route. But the potential of the generically-named firm of
Williams and Johnson is mouth-watering."

Now we (TrunkBunker) are well aware that Johnson is dropping like
a stone right now. But we're also well aware that athletic freaks like
Johnson don't come around very often, and the combine and personal
workouts will go a long way to repair his reputation. And this is a guy
that in mock drafts the past couple of years has been frequently
mentioned as the number one overall pick. OK, so his career thus
far has been a bit disappointing, given his talent, but the same thing
could have been (and was) said about Super Mario. And it wasn't as
bad as the media's making it out to be, he just never really lived up
to the dominance expected of his talent. We're talking about a freakishly fast, 6'7", 260 pound manchild, who plays a position that NFL teams always clamor for. He's going to go earlier than all of the predictions, and we see the Texans taking the plunge.

And we also think having Williams on the other side will work wonders for the development of Johnson. Look, Johnson's going to be scrutinized, but nothing like what Mario had to go through. And with Williams as a mentor, we say the sky's the limit for this mercurial talent.

Other considerations:

Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois - If the Texans puss out, this will be the direction.
Louis Delmas, S, Western Michigan - Like the Saints, would be a major reach, but would fill a major need.

16. San Diego Chargers:
~Rey Maualuga, ILB, USC

We see the Chargers being torn here between one of the two
running backs and Maualuga. The truth is, both Tomlinson and
Sproles might be gone, which would clearly necessitate the gaining
of a RB, either through the draft or free agency. But plenty of
excellent running backs have been found later in the draft, which
no doubt A.J. Smith is aware of. And he may decide to give Jacob
Hester a shot at the job. After all, he did trade this year's second
rounder for him. A trade down is certainly a possibility, but who
has the ammunition and need to trade up? Philadelphia might want
to make a move, but they might think one of the two will fall to
them, if they even want to draft a RB at all. New England could
use a RB, but they're in the business of trading down, not up. And
it's not like they're hurting at RB, they could just use an upgrade.
No, we figure the Chargers are stuck here, choosing between the
RB's and Maualuga.

The comparisons between Maualuga and Charger great Junior Seau
are understandable. They're both middle linebackers from USC,
they're both fiery Samoans, and they were both collegiate
standouts. And, like Seau, Maualuga absolutely crushes people.
Of course, he would be gone by now were it not for questions about
his athleticism, particularly as it pertains to pass coverage. Is he a two-down linebacker? We don't think so, and neither will the Chargers. There are some whispers over character concerns that will also cause him to drop, but in the end, only to this spot.

We imagine there will be some discussion about drafting Tyson Jackson and putting him on the end of the line. A front three of Jackson, Luis Castillo and Jamal Williams is ideal, but in the end they'll figure Maualuga will make a bigger impact.

Other considerations:

Chris "Beanie" Wells, RB, Ohio St. - His injury history is his only negative, dropping him to here and further.
Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia - An excellent college back, but is he special?
Tyson Jackson, DE/DT, LSU - Would be a perfect fit on the end of the line, but gets passed over for Maualuga.

17. New York Jets:
~Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois

Like most teams, the Jets need to upgrade their pass rush, but
we're going to go on record and say that Rex Ryan and his
schemes alone will do that for them. Sure, they could use some
renovation when it comes to their defensive line, but the options
at this spot are less than exhilarating. And let's face it... Rex
Ryan knows pressure. He knows how to create pressure, he
knows how to handle pressure... our sources even say he has
a pressure-heavy breakfast, complete with scrambled pressure,
pressure and gravy, and a glass of pressure juice.

That being said, what good does is do him if opposing receivers
are running free from the snap of the ball? Sure, Darrelle Revis
can take one guy, but then what? Then Vontae Davis, that's
what. The man is a physical specimen, and you want your
receivers blanketed? Think of Davis as a Duvet. As a matter of
fact, we'd like to suggest that as his nickname, The Duvet.
Make it happen people. Thing is, Davis will be with the receiver.
The only thing that drops him this far is his questionable ball
skills. There will be four-eight passes per year that you, as a fan of the game, will think to yourself "he should have intercepted that". Yes, but at least he knocked it down. And at least he was there.

Once again, the argument could be made for one of the running backs. Thomas Jones is getting up in years, and Leon Washington's not an every down back. But it's not a dire situation, and do you really think Rex Ryan's first pick is going to be an offensive player? We have our doubts. James Laurinaitis will also be considered, and could easily be the pick, but again, we feel like not only is Davis going to grade out higher, but in the end, the Jets will see Corner as a larger need than linebacker.

Other considerations:

James Laurinaitis, ILB, Ohio St. - Certainly could go here, but we're thinking Davis gets the nod.
Chris "Beanie" Wells, RB, Ohio St. - An elite level talent, but not the right fit here.
Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia - See Wells, Beanie.
Mark Sanchez, QB, USC - Could get some consideration. We think Favre is done, but with Kellen Clemons and Brett Ratliff still around, we think the Jets hold off.

18. Chicago Bears:
~James Laurinaitis, LB, Ohio St.

Sure, Jeremy Maclin's a consideration, but the Bears have proven
over the years that if you're gonna give them a WR, or even an
offensive skill player in the draft, especially the first round, you're
gonna be wrong. And the rare occasions when they did go against
their own tendencies (Rex Grossman, Curtis Enis, Cedric Benson,
Cade McNown) have only served to solidify their anti-skill-player
doctrine. Plus, at least at receiver, there will be options further
down the draft.

Mark Sanchez will get heavy consideration as well. But for the
same reasons we listed above, we don't think he'll be the pick.
Plus, we don't think the Bears have given up on Orton yet. They've
proven to be very patient when it comes to the QB position.

Truth be told, the Bears are in a bit of a pickle here. Like most
teams, they'd love to trade down. And we think the trade talk will
be getting hot and heavy, like a romance novel (and with that,
we've won a bet about including "romance novel" in a football list).
But the teams that might trade up for Knowshon Moreno, Chris
"Beanie" Wells, Tyson Jackson or Mark Sanchez don't have enough
to offer the Bears, unless they're willing to take a second rounder plus a first-rounder next year. We don't see them doing that. Typically, the teams that do something like that have two first rounders (like the Eagles, for instance, or the Lions). No, we think they'll be stuck here making a pick.

And Laurinaitis will be a good one. Unlike his positionaly cohort Rey Maualuga, Laurinaitis does have the ability to shift to the outside... which he will do, until eventually taking over for Urlacher. Plus, he's a very blue collar, Bears-style draft pick and great value considering had he come out last year, he would have been a top 10 pick.

Other considerations:

Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri - There's a lot of depth at WR in this draft, and by draft day, we think Maclin's grade will have slipped some.
Mark Sanchez, QB, USC - The problem for the Bears is if they draft a QB, they need him to be able to play right away. Sanches isn't ready for that.
Larry English, DE/OLB, Northern Illinois - Could easily be the pick, though really fits the 3-4 defense better.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
~Mark Sanchez, QB, USC

As opposed to Chicago, this is a much better sitaution for both
Sanchez and the drafting team. Tampa Bay actually has a decent,
veteran QB, and, well, at least a veteran backup. Certainly Tampa
has greater needs than QB, at least for this year, but there's new
people running things, and they always like to get a big-name to
start things off. It's also helps Sanchez's case that there's excellent
depth in the draft at both receiver and running back, both
Buccaneer needs.

So sure, the pick could be Knowshon Moreno or Chris "Beanie"
Wells. It could also be Jeremy Maclin, or even offensive tackle
Eben Britton (another need, though not as striking), but we think
they'll go with Sanchez. Why? We're glad yet angry you asked.

First, he's definitely a first-round talent. He's got the arm, the
heighth, the poise and leadership. He's the total package. The
concerns, of course, are that he's not experienced enough. He
only started for one year, and he came out after his junior year,
and the track record on juniors is less than impressive. Still, we
really believe the decision is made simple by the fact that the draft
is deep in the positions the Bucs need (not as much at DT, but
there are not worthy of this spot... and it's not as big a need as
the others). When the Bucs analyze the situation, they'll decide that Sanchez is not only worth rolling the dice on, but he makes the most sense here. That's right, says us.

Other considerations:

Eben Britton, OT, Arizona - Will, in the end, be the only other player they seriously consider.
Chris "Beanie" Wells, RB, Ohio St. - Again, the depth of the draft hurts the guys at the top.
Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia - See Wells, "Beanie".

20. Detroit Lions (From Dallas):
~Alex Mack, C, California

This is a tough one to call. As we mentioned, save
WR, RB and, to a lesser degree, S, the Lions have
needs virtually everywhere. But here's what we
know: they've already drafted an OLB; they have
a lot of money tied up in their offensive tackles;
they drafted an ILB, Jordan Dizon, in the second
round last year; DT Cory Redding, at the time he
signed his 7 year deal in 2007, was the highest
paid DT in the league; Calvin Johnson is a bad,
bad man. That's what we know. And here's what
we believe we know: new coach Jim Schwarz will
eschew glamour picks to build a solid foundation;
Ernie Sims is better than his recent play would
indicate; they can get by with their current QB's
until that foundation is built; they may already have their second RB on their roster (Jerome Felton); DE Cliff Avril has a promising future in this league; Calvin Johnson is a bad, bad man. So given these facts/inferences, it looks like the Lions will be looking here at CB, DE, DT, OG, C and TE.

Tyson Jackson would be the only DT that would make sense here, but he's basically a carbon copy of Redding, an oversized DE that would be shifted inside. We say the Lions avoid the redundancy. And as a DE he really only makes sense in the 3-4. Larry English would be another DE to consider, but again, he makes more sense in the 3-4, this time as a hybrid DE/OLB. If the Lions believe he could be an every down DE, he could easily be the pick. We don't see them going that way. At cornerback, D.J. Moore would be the highest rated guy, and he could easily go here, but there's a lot of depth at the position, especially at the top of the draft, and we see the Lions waiting. Brandon Pettigrew is an excellent TE, and while he feels like a bit of a luxury pick, he's such a good blocker that he helps the team in more ways than one. It wouldn't shock us if he went here, but it just feels like the Lions, and Schwarz in particular, won't be going TE. It also wouldn't shock us if a TE came in via free agency... Bo Scaife is a free agent, and he was a Titan with Schwarz. Of course at guard, nobody is worth this spot.

Which brings us to the center position. Sure, the Lions have Dominic Raiola tied into a deal, but it's set to end following the upcoming season. And while Raiola's one of the smartest centers in the league, he's just too small. He's a finesse guy through and through. Mack is one of the best center prospects to come around in ages (oh sure, his game will be picked apart between now and the draft, but so will everyone's), he's tough, he's aggressive, he can handle the big DT's. He's everything Schwarz will want. You draft him now, plug him into the middle of the line, and forget about the position for 10 years. Those are the kind of players the Lions need. And OK, maybe he deputizes at guard for a year (which he can do), but that will fill a need too. And we say by the time the draft rolls around, this won't be a reach at all. We would be remiss if we didn't mention that Louisville's Eric Wood is also one of the better center prospects to come around in awhile, and some like him better than Mack. We don't, but some do. If the Lions think he's their guy, that could be the pick here... but he'd have to vault up the draft boards. We don't see it.

Ideally, though, they'd love to trade down. But again, the only teams that need a RB would most likely have to throw next year's first into the deal... or, conversely, include so many picks that the Leos would have to drop down quite a ways and load up on mid-round picks. Can a talent needy team like the Lions afford to take that kind of offer? We say no. They need help, and they need it now.

Other considerations:

D.J. Moore, CB, Vanderbilt - If they don't go Mack, Moore could easily be the pick.
Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma St. - If they don't go Mack (and don't land a free agent tight end), Pettigrew could easily be the pick.
Larry English, DE/OLB, Northern Illinois - If they don't go Mack (and they believe English can hold up at DE), English could easily be the pick.
Tyson Jackson, DT/DE, LSU - Too similar to Redding.
Eric Wood, C, Louisville - The Lions could decide that Wood fits them better than Mack, but he's probably better value later in the draft.

21. Arizona Cardinals (From Philadelphia):
~Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia

Here, we think, is the first legitimate trade-down spot. If
the Eagles aren't going to package these picks to move up
(and according to us, they aren't), then they'll definitely
consider moving down. And since they have two first
rounders, and since they're a solid team with fewer holes
than most, they might take a second and next year's first
from someone (and there's precedent, last year they did
this with Carolina, which is why they have two picks this
year). That being said, they're not gonna have to do it
that way. We see Arizona offering their first rounder (the
31st overall) and their second rounder (the 63rd overall)
for this pick and the Eagles fourth round pick (the 117th
overall). Sure they could use one of the running backs
that are drawing all the interest here, but let's face it...
Andy Reid doesn't draft first round RB's. Never has,
(probably) never will. And with two picks in the next ten,
if he decides he wants to, he'll still have an opportunity.
So, why does Arizona move up? Hey, we ask the questions
around here.

It's clear to us (and probably everyone else) that Edgerrin James' days as a Cardinal have come to an end. And J.J. Arrington, the third-down back is an unrestricted free agent. That leaves Tim Hightower as their only viable running back. And whilst he proved capable in the red zone, he was a disappointment as an every down back. Plus, you know the trend... two running backs are better than one. Then there's the change in philosophy that happened as the playoffs began. They have to run the ball, and head coach Ken Whisenhunt knows it. Hell, he and Russ Grimm did come over from Pittsburgh, after all. And when you figure Kurt Warner's not long for the league (he may even be gone after this year), you figure Matt Leinart's going to need help from a strong running game. A one-two punch of Hightower, the power-back, and Moreno, the elusive speedster, should do the trick.

Other considerations:

None - Typically when you trade up, it's for a specific player.

22. Oakland Raiders (From Minnesota):
~Percy Harvin, WR, Florida

The Vikings two most glaring needs are at right tackle and
quarterback. Regrettably, there is no one playing those positions
worthy of this pick. Sure, there are a couple of tackles (Eben Britton
and William Beatty), but they project as left tackles. Josh Freeman
is an option at quarterback, and we've seen plenty of mocks that
have him going this high, but we don't see it. He's basically
Tavarius Jackson redux, and we see his stock falling as the draft
approaches. He just doesn't make good decisions. So we think
they'll seriously consider trading down, and like the Eagles, they've
got enough talent to pull it off. Unlike the Eagles, they don't have
two first round draft picks. That certainly doesn't preclude them
from making a deal, but it factors into the equation. That equation,
though, will be solved by a sweetheart deal from the Raiders,
astounded that both speedsters Jeremy Maclin and Percy Harvin
are still available. The Raiders will offer their 2nd rounder (40th
overall), their 3rd rounder (71st overall), and a 2010 4th rounder
for this pick, and the Vikings will gladly accept.

We think, by draft day Harvin will have solidified himself as the
better of the two speedy receivers, with a stellar combine performance and his play in big games (as opposed to Maclin, who tended to disappear a bit in the big showdowns). And we know how Al Davis likes his speedy weapons. He'll look at the potential of an offense with developing JaMarcus Russell, Darren McFadden and the speedy Harvin and wet himself (he's old), and frankly, he'll consider any forthcoming period of offensive domination his birthright. A dream start to the draft for the Raiders.

Other considerations:

Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri - We suppose, even though the Raiders traded up to get here, they'll be deciding between two guys.

23. New England Patriots:
~Larry English, OLB, N. Illinois

Make no mistake, if English gets drafted by a 3-4 team, he's
being drafted as a linebacker. And the Patriots desperately
need to get younger at linebacker. English showed well at the
Senior Bowl, and he's just the type of value/need pick Bill
Belichick is known for.

If we're being honest, the Patriots have more needs than most
elite teams. Some of that has to do with age, some of it has to
to do with the fact that average talent is coached-up by an
excellent coaching staff, and some of it has to do with great
quarterback play masking deficiencies.

So yes, their age is showing on the offensive line, and there
are some offensive linemen worthy of this spot (T Eben Britton, for instance, or T William Beatty, or T/G Duke Robinson even, or maybe even C Eric Wood, if his stock improves enough between now and the draft). But it's not as pressing a need, and it can be addressed further down the road. And yes, they lack real depth in their defensive backfield, and again, there are some worthy candidates for this spot, like D.J. Moore maybe, or Alphonso Smith, or even Utah's Sean Smith or San Diego St.'s Coye Francies. But again, we think Belichick realizes that linebackers are the key to his defense, and defensive backs can be found later. You could even make the argument that they need a big ol', run-stuffing defensive tackle, since current tackle Vince Wilfork's contract is up. Logic would dictate that they'd re-sign him, but there's more that plays into it than that. If they franchise QB Matt Cassel it will be difficult to extend Wilfork (who was still on his rather cheap rookie contract) without treading dangerously close to the salary cap limit. And you know how the Patriots typically do things... once you get too expensive, you get replaced. There's the slim possibility that they keep Wilfork and cut Richard Seymour instead, but it doesn't work as well financially. Regardless, there is no pure nose tackle worth taking with this pick, though if they cut Seymour, Tyson Jackson (who would be an end in the 3-4) becomes a possibility. In the end, we say they like English better than any of those guys anyway, and he's the pick.

Other considerations:

Eben Britton, OT, Arizona - Fills a need, but not as strong of one as English does.
William Beatty, OT, Connecticut - See Britton, Eben.
Duke Robinson, OT/OG, Oklahoma - See Britton, Eben.
Eric Wood, C, Louisville - Too early to take him as yet, and center isn't as strong a need as tackle or guard.
D.J. Moore, CB, Vanderbilt - If Belichick decides to go defensive back, Moore will be the guy.
Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU - Makes sense here if contract situations play out a certain way.

24. Atlanta Falcons:
~Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Okla. St.

The Falcons would love to snag a DT here, but with Peria Jerry and
B.J. Raji long gone, they're left with converting Tyson Jackson from
defensive end. We say they'll look at the DT depth of the draft...
Ron Brace, Sen'Derrick Marks, "Ziggy" Hood, Fili Moala and Jarron
Gilbert, just to name a few, and decide to address the situation
later. Then they'll look at other positions on the defensive side of
the ball where they have a need... rush end, OLB, S and, if there's
an elite one, they'd even take a corner. So, yeah, all of them.
Trouble is, there's not a lot of value at this spot for those positions.
Let us explain.

Basically, Robert Ayers and Paul Kruger are the only defensive
ends that will get a look here, and while they've both got their
strengths, neither are worthy of this spot. Kruger's your classic "try
hard" guy who isn't physically as gifted as some of the other ends
in the draft, while Ayers, who is certainly more of a traditional
specimen, didn't start at Tennessee until his senior season (where
he was decent) and didn't explode onto the scene until an excellent
Senior Bowl. This will convince the Falcons to wait.

At OLB, Clint Sintim makes sense, but his stock is dropping after a poor showing at the Senior Bowl. Clay Matthews will get a look, but he's virtually the opposite of Sintim, vaulting to these lofty heights based on a strong showing at the Senior Bowl. We believe he will fall back to earth a bit (though he will still be picked higher than he was predicted to be before the Senior Bowl). At Safety Louis Delmas could certainly be the pick. He fills a need, and he's taken over as the highest rated safety in the draft. But being the highest rated doesn't mean he should go this high. Would you take the highest rated kicker this high? Of course you wouldn't. And Delmas, at least right now, just doesn't merit this high a pick. And at corner, D.J. Moore and Alphonso Smith are enticing, but it's at a position that the Falcons have covered, and unless, say, Malcolm Jenkins were here, they ain't jumping.

So that takes us to the offensive side of the ball. They have two glaring needs: OT and TE. The OT's available here (and worthy of the pick) are Eben Britton and William Beatty, and the only TE is Brandon Pettigrew. We think they might agonize over this pick, but in the end, while Britton and Beatty are excellent OT's, Pettigrew could end up being one of the best TE's in the league. He'd be an excellent red zone target for Matt Ryan, and his ability to block will soften the blow from missing out on one of the OT's. Plug him in and let him be an All-Pro for years. Plus, they did spend a first rounder on OT last year.

Other considerations:

Eben Britton, OT, Arizona - He'll be tough to pass on, but Pettigrew's versatility will win out.
Louis Delmas, S, Western Michigan - The top rated safety, but just a little too high for him.
Clay Matthews, OLB, USC - If Pettigrew weren't available, he'd make more sense.
Clint Sintim, OLB/DE, Virginia - A better fit in the 3-4.
Paul Kruger, DE, Utah - A good record, and looked great against Alabama, but will drop a little after the combine.
Tyson Jackson, DT/DE, LSU - Too high to take a guy you'd have to convert, at least for a team with such a strong need.
William Beatty, OT, Connecticut - Will probably have to wait until Britton goes.
Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee - His relative anonymity leading up to the Senior Bowl will scare them off.

25. Miami Dolphins:
~Sean Smith, FS/CB, Utah

The Dolphins biggest needs are at offensive guard and
inside linebacker, neither of which are well represented
at this spot. Oh sure, technically OG/OT Duke Robinson
could be drafted around here, he's going to go soon,
but he just doesn't give off that blue-collar, Parcells
vibe, ya know? Plus, as big as he is, he's a surprisingly
average run-blocker, which would be one of the main
issues the Dolphins would be trying to correct. We say
they pass. So they'll move to lesser needs and look for
the best player available. Those would include WR, FS,
NT/DT, CB and OLB.

There is certainly some value at WR with Jeremy Maclin
still on the board, but when have you ever known Bill
Parcells to draft a receiver in the first round? And when
he did, he immediately started calling him "she".
Besides, Maclin is too similar to Ted Ginn, Jr., so we're
pretty sure the Dolphins will pass. There are really no nose tackles worthy of this spot, and while the OLB Clay Matthews will be tempting, they did just spend a bunch of money on Cameron Wake from the CFL, and they still have 17.5 sack Joey Porter on the roster, though he is getting up in years. Plus, Matthews will come off as too similar to Bobby Carpenter for Parcells tastes.

Which leaves CB and FS, and what do you know, there's a guy here who can play both! And you know how Parcells loves his versatility. While this may seem high for Smith right now, by the time the combines over he may be going higher than this. And again, it's his versatility that makes him more valuable to Parcells, and we think he's going to be the pick.

Other considerations:

Duke Robinson, OG/OT, Oklahoma - In the end, not a Parcells type of guy.
Clay Matthews, OLB, USC - In the end, not as big a need as CB/S.
Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri - We just don't believe Parcells will ever draft a first round receiver again.

26. Baltimore Ravens:
~D.J. Moore, CB, Vanderbilt

The Ravens could use a receiver to eventually replace 35
year old Derrick Mason, but in a draft with this kind of
depth, we think they'll wait until later. Same could be said
for the center position. Jason Brown is an unrestricted free
agent, and he's going to be very expesive to keep. But
even were he to leave, there is great center depth in this
draft, so they can deal with that later. If Alex Mack had
been around, he might have been a consideration, and we
suppose if Eric Wood were to vault up the draft boards,
he'd be a consideration. As of now, we don't see that
happening. And eventually they're going to have to start
re-stocking their linebacker corps, as Ray Lewis, Bart
Scott and Terrell Suggs are all unrestricted free agents.
Not all of them will get away, but one or even two might.
And even if Ray Lewis is re-signed, he's well on the wrong
side of thirty and can't have too much time left. Still, the
Ravens seem to be able to pull linebackers out of their
hats, so we hardly think they'll address it here.

Which brings us to the defensive backfield, specifically the
cornerback position. It was obvious during the playoffs
that the Ravens have some issues there, and it was
exacerbated by injury. Samari Rolle's getting up there in
age anyway, so it would be extremely prudent of them to
address the situation. And if there's anything GM Ozzie Newsome's been accused of, it's of being prudent. There's good cornerback value here, too. D.J. Moore and Alphonso Smith have both proven to be playmakers in major conferences, and Coye Francies has all of the physical attributes you look for in a cover man. We imagine they'll be the three under consideration, and we imagine Moore will win out. Imagining things is, after all, one of our many fortes. Smith is a great cover man and a playmaker (rife with the extremely popular "ball skills"), but he's a touch small. No, he's a lot small, and considering Moore has similar abilities as a cover man, comparable "ball skills" and he's an excellent returner, he'll get the nod. Francies is more your traditional big corner/super athlete, but he comes from a smaller school, and he has some off-the-field issues that are going to plague him some. Moore will simply be the safer pick.

Other considerations:

Alphonso Smith, CB, Wake Forest - Moore just has more upside.
Coye Francies, CB, San Diego St. - Too many questions to go with over the safer pick Moore.
Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri - They'll give him some thought since he fell this far, before they realize that he's basically the same receiver as Mark Clayton.

27. Cleveland Browns (From Indianapolis):
~Chris "Beanie" Wells, RB, Ohio St.

We think the Colts will have a lot of teams clamoring for
this pick. First, a few highly rated players have fallen...
Jeremy Maclin, Tyson Jackson and Chris "Beanie" Wells.
Second, the Colts biggest need, defensive tackle, can
still be had a few picks down the road. Sure, they need
to think about grooming Harrison's replacement, but that
can be done later (and we have the sneaking suspicion
they're going to be looking at a larger man, rather than
the smaller Maclin). Truth is, the Colts are fairly loaded
with talent, and will certainly listen to the offers that
surely come their way.

Cleveland doesn't have a lot of draft choices, but what
they do have is a new management team and a potential
superstar sitting there at a position of need. Oh, and he
happens to be a local boy. We say they talk them into
this move faster than we talked ourselves into one more
slice of cheesecake last night. And in lieu of giving up
more picks in this year's draft, they'll sweeten the pot
with a higher pick next year (and a discrepancy in the
draft value chart of about 100 points in Indianapolis'
favor). So they'll give Indianapolis their second round pick this year (the 36th overall) and their second round pick next year.

Jamal Lewis isn't getting any younger and Jason Wright and Jerome Harrison certainly can't be counted on to carry the load. And that's if they're even around anymore. Wells not only makes sense cause of the need, but also because the fans will love it. He was a star at nearby Ohio St., and was one of the most dominant players in the country... when healthy. And there's the rub. If he can stay healthy, he might be one of the best backs in the league next year, but truth be told, he's fallen this far because of concerns over his health (that, and the running back position being de-valued as a first round pick), and it's certainly a risk to trade up for him. That being said, he's certainly worth it, and if he does stay healthy... look out league. We think he'll be the best back in this draft.

Other considerations:

None - They had their eye on Wells the whole way.

28. Philadelphia Eagles (From Carolina):
~Eben Britton, OT, Arizona

Age is creeping up on Eagles tackles Tra Thomas and Jon Runyan,
which might preclude the team from re-signing them (they're both
free agents). Even if they re-sign only one of them, OT will still be
a major need. Sure Todd Herremans might shift over there, but if
they can find an offensive tackle in the draft he could stay at guard,
which of course would be better for the Eagles. And Britton is great
value here. After considering him at 21 (before they decided to
trade the pick away) in what would have been a minor reach,
they're delighted to see him still here at 28. He's a versatile guy,
having played on both the right and left side of the line at Arizona
(though he projects mainly as a LT), and if the Eagles re-sign either
Thomas or Runyan, he can learn from them. It's a win-win-win-win
situation, except for Eagle opponents, who will not enjoy facing this
guy through the years.

Sure, there are some other positions that need addressing... RB,
for instance, what with Brian Westbrook getting up there in years
and Correll Buckhalter probably leaving via free agency (oh, and
Lorenzo Booker sucking). The safety position could also be looked
at, not to mention wide receiver and tight end. But one thing to remember... the Eagles pick again three picks from now, so they'll have to assess which player has the strongest chance of being picked by either the Giants or Titans. That won't be easy, as both those teams figure to go best player available. So of the guys they might be considering... Britton, Louis Delmas, Duke Robinson, LeSean McCoy (we don't think they'll seriously look at Maclin... he's too similar to Kevin Curtis and Desean Jackson), which one carries the highest grade? We say, come draft day, that man is Britton.

Other considerations:

Duke Robinson, OG/OT, Oklahoma - Will get some consideration also because of his versatility, and if the Eagles decide Herremans would be better at tackle, they could easily go this way.
LeSean McCoy, RB, Pittsburgh - They're going to have to get a RB in this draft, but it's just so deep.
Eric Wood, C, Louisville - The feeling will be that it's a touch too high which will prevent them from drafting him, but he'll go soon.
Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri - We suppose we should mention him, but we really don't think the Eagles will go this route.

29. New York Giants:
~Tyson Jackson, DT/DE, LSU

There will be some surprise with this pick, but let us explain why
there shouldn't be. Remember a few years back when, at the end
of the draft, the Giants selected Matthias Kiwanuka, much to the
consternation of the mock draft cognoscenti? The Giants value
defensive linemen more than any other team. And when one falls
to them that was supposed to be picked in the middle of the first
round... well, that guy usually qualifies as, what we like to call,
"best player available". And Jackson fits the versatility the Giants
look for in their linemen. He can come off the end on rush downs
with Kiwanuka dropping back to a linebacker position, or he can
go inside on passing downs to wreck havoc with his speed. He
presents a lot of options for the Giants, and we think he'll be the
pick, even though a defensive lineman isn't their biggest need.

They could, if say Jackson wasn't available, be looking to address
their OLB situation, especially if the plan is to move Kiwanuka to
defensive end permanently. In that situation they'd probably look at
Clint Sintim or Clay Matthews, both of whom would be good value
here. Or they could decide that the Plaxico situation, or as we like
to call it, the "Plaxiconundrum", needs to be addressed. If so, they'll
look at Jeremy Maclin or Hakeem Nicks or Darrius Heyward-Bey. But,
and there's always a but, isn't there?... we expect Plaxico to return to the team, thus reducing the need at WR (though it should still be looked at, as Toomer is straight old and you never know how long Burress will be around... just not in the first round), and even if they did want to go receiver here, they'd soon realize that there will be guys available with their second round pick. And as to the OLB spot, if Jackson is still available, the need won't be as strong, as Kiwanuka and even Tuck can be rotated there. Yes, it should still be addressed, but not here. Not with a guy like Jackson on the board.

Other considerations:

Clay Matthews, OLB, USC - If Jackson is gone, we fully expect Matthews to be the pick...
Clint Sintim, OLB/DE, Virginia - ...unless of course the pick is Sintim.
Hakeem Nicks, WR, North Carolina - There will still be good WR's available in the second round.
Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland - See Nicks, Hakeem.
Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri - See Nicks, Hakeem.

30. Tennessee Titans:
~Alphonso Smith, CB, Wake Forest

Tough call here for the Titans. They are in a position,
talent-wise, to look at best player available. But it just
so happens that two of those play positions where the
Titans do have legitimate, if not pressing, needs: WR
(Jeremy Maclin) and CB (Alphonso Smith). We have a
sneaking suspicion that the Titans were hoping that
Maclin would fall to them, and now that he has, they find
another guy that they thought would be gone by now...
the best cover corner in the draft (our opinion, but it's
shared). What to do, what to do. Well, the reason for
Smith's fall is his smaller stature, registering at only 5'9".
But the Titans have shown that heigth (or lack thereof)
isn't going to deter them, as their best corner is 5'10"
Cortland Finnegan. And it's not everyday a corner with
Smith coverage ability and "ball skills" (you think anyone
gets insulted by that?) is available at the end of the 1st
round. So it's a case of be careful what you wish for. His availability is certainly going to give them pause.

As for Maclin, Tennessee is absolutely the perfect spot for him. He and Chris Johnson would be a formidable one-two punch when it comes to explosiveness, and he fits with their existing receiver corps. Justin Gage, also from Missouri is a big, possession receiver. Maclin would be the speedy complement. And he could get on the end of some of those bombs Kerry Collins is fully capable of throwing, provided he comes back. So what's the hang-up?

In the end, it's Jeff Fisher. He's an old school, defensive back. If he likes both of these guys equally... and we think he will... he'll go with the defender. Plus, as we've mentioned many times and we wish you'd listen better... is that too much to ask?... this is a deep draft for WR's. Sure, Maclin probably won't be there, but somebody else will.

Other considerations:

Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri - We're guessing this is pretty much a two-horse race between Maclin and Smith.

31. Philadelphia Eagles (From Arizona):
~Louis Delmas, S, Western Michigan

After exhausting the fully allotted 10 minutes in an effort to trade
down, the Eagles take the best player availabe approach and nab
their safety. In an ideal world, they'd be able to pull of the trade
down, since many of their needs can be fulfilled on down the line.
But it takes two to tango (but only one to breakdance, or vogue...
the Eagles need to rethink their favorite dance moves), and, even
with the falling Maclin as a carrot, they won't get any bites... at
least not at their price.

So they're left with some tough decisions. They could take Maclin,
as WR is certainly a need. But we absolutely believe that they're
looking for a bigger, move-the-chains type of receiver to add to
the Desean Jackson/Kevin Curtis combo. And with guys like Kenny
Britt, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Hakeem Nicks, Ramses Barden and
Patrick Turner in this draft, there's lots of those guys. Besides, with
the way the receivers played in the playoffs... all of a sudden it
doesn't seem like quite the need it once was. And who knows...
maybe... just maybe... that big possession receiver is already on
the roster in the form of Jason Avant.

Running back, however, is a completely different animal. There's a
need, and a strong one. With Westbrook as the only viable back on
the roster come game day, and with his injury history, the situaion
simply must be addressed. But here? Sure, LeSean McCoy is an option. But he's a bit of a head case, which the Eagles have certainly grown tired of (Terrell Owens, Shawn Andrews). He'll also offer virtually nothing in tandem with Westbrook, as he's essentially the same back. Same style, same take-it-outside preference, same pass-catching threat... It's not a bad thing as a replacement, but as a compliment? And finally, McCoy's biggest problem is all the depth at his position. Depth that the Eagles will no doubt be aware of. So the running back can wait.

So they'll end up with the best player available at a position of slightly lesser need, but a need just the same. Delmas has used the Senior Bowl to inject himself into the safety conversation, and his range, hitting ability and leadership have vaulted him up the charts. And the opportunity to learn from a guy like Brian Dawkins? Priceless.

Other considerations:

Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri - Just not his time yet.
LeSean McCoy, RB, Pittsburgh - Falls prey to the running back depth.

32. Pittsburgh Steelers:
~Phil Loadholt, OT/OG, Oklahoma

The Steelers biggest need is at the tackle position. Ben
Roethlisberger spent far too much time in the trainer's room,
and while the line improved over the course of the year, they
still had their share of struggles. Loadholt will probably end
up on the right side, but he could move to the left in a pinch,
and it's his versatility along the line that will appeal to the
Steelers. Plus, he's got that mean streak that teams like in
their offensive linemen. He's a mauling run-blocker, and a
good enough pass-blocker, and, as he also fits into the "best
player available" category (or at least, he's not a reach), he'll
get the nod here.

William Beatty, a true tackle, will also get a look, but he's
much more of a finesse, pass-blocking tackle, and that's not
really the way the Steelers do things. They'll also look at
Loadholt's teammate Duke Robinson, but he projects strictly
as an offensive guard, and the Steelers really need more help
at the tackle position (though they could certainly use a guard as well). Eric Wood, the center from Louisville will at least get a cursory glance, but the need isn't nearly as strong, and this might be just a little too high for him. And it wouldn't surprise us if defensive end Robert Ayers were given a look as a 3-4 defensive end, but he wasn't the most productive guy, and Pittsburgh will want to pick someone a little more proven.

All that being said, it's tough to predict what the Super Bowl champs will try and do. Teams this stocked for talent typically go best player available, and that player is often at a position that doesn't seem like a need at all. What we're getting at here, is it wouldn't shock us if they drafted Maclin. It would surprise us, but it wouldn't shock us. Still, we're going to give them Loadholt, and we're going to feel pretty damn good about it.

Other considerations:

William Beatty, OT, Connecticut - Too much finesse for the Steelers tastes.
Duke Robinson, OG, Oklahoma - Tackle is a bigger need.
Eric Wood, C, Louisville - A little too high, and not as big a need as tackle.